Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
